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Krasnodar 2 vs Irtysh Omsk — First League 2018

Krasnodar 2
Krasnodar 2
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Irtysh Omsk
Irtysh Omsk
4/11/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 36Stadion Akademii FK Krasnodar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Krasnodar 245%
×Draw27%
Irtysh Omsk28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krasnodar 2
1.39
Irtysh Omsk
1.05

Krasnodar 2 creates 32% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 21 away

creates per match

Krasnodar 2
1.35
Irtysh Omsk
0.86

allows per match

Krasnodar 2
1.24
Irtysh Omsk
1.43

finishing

Krasnodar 2+0.00on par
Irtysh Omsk+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krasnodar 2 ↓

Irtysh Omsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Krasnodar 2 or draw
72%
Krasnodar 2 or Irtysh Omsk
73%
Draw or Irtysh Omsk
55%

Winning margin

Krasnodar 2 wins by 2+
21%
Irtysh Omsk wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Krasnodar 2 1+ goals
75%
Krasnodar 2 2+ goals
40%
Krasnodar 2 3+ goals
16%
Irtysh Omsk 1+ goals
65%
Irtysh Omsk 2+ goals
28%
Irtysh Omsk 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Krasnodar 2 (draw refunded)
61%
Irtysh Omsk (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krasnodar 2 at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.24 · 88 matches

Irtysh Omsk away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.43 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krasnodar 2 attack 1.35 + Irtysh Omsk defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.39

Irtysh Omsk attack 0.86 + Krasnodar 2 defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Krasnodar 2 scores more
45%
level
27%
Irtysh Omsk scores more
28%

Krasnodar 2 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Krasnodar 2 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Krasnodar 2 2–0 Irtysh Omsk

Krasnodar 2 beat Irtysh Omsk 2-0 in First League on April 11, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Akademii FK Krasnodar in Krasnodar.