Irtysh Omsk 3–3 Krasnodar 2: Result & Stats

Irtysh Omsk

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Krasnodar 2

8/3/2024

Second League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 3Stadion Akademii FK Krasnodar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Irtysh Omsk41%

×Draw26%

Krasnodar 233%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Irtysh OmskExpected goals in this matchKrasnodar 2

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.26

Irtysh Omsk

1.44

Krasnodar 2

1.26

Irtysh Omsk creates 14% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 9 away

1.00

creates per match

1.33

1.19

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Irtysh Omsk

1.00

Krasnodar 2

1.33

allows per match

Irtysh Omsk

1.19

Krasnodar 2

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Irtysh Omsk+0.00on par

Krasnodar 2+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Irtysh Omsk ↓

Krasnodar 2 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Irtysh Omsk or draw

67%

Irtysh Omsk or Krasnodar 2

74%

Draw or Krasnodar 2

59%

Winning margin

Irtysh Omsk wins by 2+

20%

Krasnodar 2 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Irtysh Omsk 1+ goals

76%

Irtysh Omsk 2+ goals

42%

Irtysh Omsk 3+ goals

18%

Krasnodar 2 1+ goals

72%

Krasnodar 2 2+ goals

36%

Krasnodar 2 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Irtysh Omsk (draw refunded)

56%

Krasnodar 2 (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Irtysh Omsk at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

Krasnodar 2 away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Irtysh Omsk attack 1.00 + Krasnodar 2 defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.44

Krasnodar 2 attack 1.33 + Irtysh Omsk defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Irtysh Omsk scores more

41%

level

26%

Krasnodar 2 scores more

33%

Irtysh Omsk at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Irtysh Omsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff