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Krasnodar 2 vs Dinamo Bryansk — Second League A - Fall Season Silver 2023

Krasnodar 2
Krasnodar 2
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Dinamo Bryansk
Dinamo Bryansk
9/14/2024Second League A - Fall Season SilverSecond League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 9Stadion Akademii FK Krasnodar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Krasnodar 235%
×Draw25%
Dinamo Bryansk39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krasnodar 2
1.36
Dinamo Bryansk
1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 18 away

creates per match

Krasnodar 2
1.33
Dinamo Bryansk
1.11

allows per match

Krasnodar 2
1.78
Dinamo Bryansk
1.39

finishing

Krasnodar 2+0.00on par
Dinamo Bryansk+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krasnodar 2 ↓

Dinamo Bryansk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Krasnodar 2 or draw
61%
Krasnodar 2 or Dinamo Bryansk
75%
Draw or Dinamo Bryansk
65%

Winning margin

Krasnodar 2 wins by 2+
16%
Dinamo Bryansk wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Krasnodar 2 1+ goals
74%
Krasnodar 2 2+ goals
39%
Krasnodar 2 3+ goals
16%
Dinamo Bryansk 1+ goals
77%
Dinamo Bryansk 2+ goals
42%
Dinamo Bryansk 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Krasnodar 2 (draw refunded)
47%
Dinamo Bryansk (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krasnodar 2 at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

Dinamo Bryansk away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.39 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krasnodar 2 attack 1.33 + Dinamo Bryansk defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.36

Dinamo Bryansk attack 1.11 + Krasnodar 2 defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Krasnodar 2 scores more
35%
level
25%
Dinamo Bryansk scores more
39%

Dinamo Bryansk at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Dinamo Bryansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Krasnodar 2 vs Dinamo Bryansk

Krasnodar 2 and Dinamo Bryansk drew 1-1 in Second League A - Fall Season Silver on September 14, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Akademii FK Krasnodar in Krasnodar.