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Dinamo Bryansk vs Krasnodar 2 — Second League A - Fall Season Silver 2023

Dinamo Bryansk
Dinamo Bryansk
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Krasnodar 2
Krasnodar 2
11/9/2024Second League A - Fall Season SilverSecond League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 17Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Dinamo Bryansk50%
×Draw25%
Krasnodar 225%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Bryansk
1.64
Krasnodar 2
1.08

Dinamo Bryansk creates 52% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 9 away

creates per match

Dinamo Bryansk
1.39
Krasnodar 2
1.33

allows per match

Dinamo Bryansk
0.83
Krasnodar 2
1.89

finishing

Dinamo Bryansk+0.00on par
Krasnodar 2+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Bryansk ↓

Krasnodar 2 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Dinamo Bryansk or draw
75%
Dinamo Bryansk or Krasnodar 2
75%
Draw or Krasnodar 2
50%

Winning margin

Dinamo Bryansk wins by 2+
27%
Krasnodar 2 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Dinamo Bryansk 1+ goals
81%
Dinamo Bryansk 2+ goals
49%
Dinamo Bryansk 3+ goals
23%
Krasnodar 2 1+ goals
66%
Krasnodar 2 2+ goals
29%
Krasnodar 2 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Bryansk (draw refunded)
67%
Krasnodar 2 (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Bryansk at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.83 · 18 matches

Krasnodar 2 away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Bryansk attack 1.39 + Krasnodar 2 defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.64

Krasnodar 2 attack 1.33 + Dinamo Bryansk defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Dinamo Bryansk scores more
50%
level
25%
Krasnodar 2 scores more
25%

Dinamo Bryansk at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Dinamo Bryansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League A - Fall Season Silver: Dinamo Bryansk 2–2 Krasnodar 2

Dinamo Bryansk and Krasnodar 2 drew 2-2 in Second League A - Fall Season Silver on November 9, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Dinamo in Bryansk.