Krasnodar 2 0–0 Dinamo Bryansk: Result & Stats

Krasnodar 2

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Dinamo Bryansk

10/24/2020

First League · Round 17Stadion Akademii FK Krasnodar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Krasnodar 253%

×Draw26%

Dinamo Bryansk21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Krasnodar 2Expected goals in this matchDinamo Bryansk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

0.86

Krasnodar 2

1.53

Dinamo Bryansk

0.86

Krasnodar 2 creates 78% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 21 away

1.35

creates per match

0.48

1.24

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Krasnodar 2

1.35

Dinamo Bryansk

0.48

allows per match

Krasnodar 2

1.24

Dinamo Bryansk

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Krasnodar 2+0.00on par

Dinamo Bryansk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krasnodar 2 ↓

Dinamo Bryansk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Krasnodar 2 or draw

79%

Krasnodar 2 or Dinamo Bryansk

74%

Draw or Dinamo Bryansk

47%

Winning margin

Krasnodar 2 wins by 2+

27%

Dinamo Bryansk wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Krasnodar 2 1+ goals

78%

Krasnodar 2 2+ goals

45%

Krasnodar 2 3+ goals

20%

Dinamo Bryansk 1+ goals

58%

Dinamo Bryansk 2+ goals

21%

Dinamo Bryansk 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Krasnodar 2 (draw refunded)

71%

Dinamo Bryansk (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krasnodar 2 at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.24 · 88 matches

Dinamo Bryansk away — creates 0.48, concedes 1.71 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krasnodar 2 attack 1.35 + Dinamo Bryansk defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.53

Dinamo Bryansk attack 0.48 + Krasnodar 2 defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Krasnodar 2 scores more

53%

level

26%

Dinamo Bryansk scores more

21%

Krasnodar 2 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Krasnodar 2 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff