Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Krasnodar 2 vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz — First League 2018

Krasnodar 2
Krasnodar 2
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
7/17/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 2Stadion Akademii FK Krasnodar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Krasnodar 239%
×Draw26%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krasnodar 2
1.34
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 88 home / 70 away

creates per match

Krasnodar 2
1.35
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.24

allows per match

Krasnodar 2
1.24
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.33

finishing

Krasnodar 2+0.00on par
Alaniya Vladikavkaz+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krasnodar 2 ↓

Alaniya Vladikavkaz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Krasnodar 2 or draw
66%
Krasnodar 2 or Alaniya Vladikavkaz
74%
Draw or Alaniya Vladikavkaz
61%

Winning margin

Krasnodar 2 wins by 2+
18%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Krasnodar 2 1+ goals
74%
Krasnodar 2 2+ goals
39%
Krasnodar 2 3+ goals
15%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1+ goals
71%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz 2+ goals
35%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Krasnodar 2 (draw refunded)
53%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krasnodar 2 at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.24 · 88 matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.33 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krasnodar 2 attack 1.35 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.34

Alaniya Vladikavkaz attack 1.24 + Krasnodar 2 defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Krasnodar 2 scores more
39%
level
26%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz scores more
34%

Krasnodar 2 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Krasnodar 2 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Krasnodar 2 1–3 Alaniya Vladikavkaz

Alaniya Vladikavkaz beat Krasnodar 2 3-1 in First League on July 17, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Akademii FK Krasnodar in Krasnodar.