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Alaniya Vladikavkaz vs Krasnodar 2 — First League 2018

Alaniya Vladikavkaz
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
FT
5 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Krasnodar 2
Krasnodar 2
5/13/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 31Akhmat Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz49%
×Draw25%
Krasnodar 225%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.58
Krasnodar 2
1.06

Alaniya Vladikavkaz creates 49% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 91 away

creates per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.57
Krasnodar 2
0.89

allows per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.24
Krasnodar 2
1.58

finishing

Alaniya Vladikavkaz+0.00on par
Krasnodar 2+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alaniya Vladikavkaz ↓

Krasnodar 2 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Alaniya Vladikavkaz or draw
75%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz or Krasnodar 2
75%
Draw or Krasnodar 2
51%

Winning margin

Alaniya Vladikavkaz wins by 2+
26%
Krasnodar 2 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1+ goals
79%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz 2+ goals
47%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz 3+ goals
21%
Krasnodar 2 1+ goals
65%
Krasnodar 2 2+ goals
29%
Krasnodar 2 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Alaniya Vladikavkaz (draw refunded)
66%
Krasnodar 2 (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alaniya Vladikavkaz at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.24 · 70 matches

Krasnodar 2 away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.58 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz attack 1.57 + Krasnodar 2 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.58

Krasnodar 2 attack 0.89 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Alaniya Vladikavkaz scores more
49%
level
25%
Krasnodar 2 scores more
25%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Alaniya Vladikavkaz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alaniya Vladikavkaz vs Krasnodar 2

Alaniya Vladikavkaz beat Krasnodar 2 5-2 in First League on May 13, 2023.

The match was played at Akhmat Arena in Groznyi.