Krasava Ypsonas 1–2 Apoel Nicosia: Result & Stats

Krasava Ypsonas

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Apoel Nicosia

I. Christodoulou 81'

P. Sotiriou 61'

M. Corbu 15'

8/24/2025

1. Division · Round 1Ammochostos Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Krasava Ypsonas35%

×Draw27%

Apoel Nicosia38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Krasava YpsonasExpected goals in this matchApoel Nicosia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.25

Krasava Ypsonas

1.19

Apoel Nicosia

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 120 away

1.24

creates per match

1.39

1.12

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Krasava Ypsonas

1.24

Apoel Nicosia

1.39

allows per match

Krasava Ypsonas

1.12

Apoel Nicosia

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Krasava Ypsonas+0.00on par

Apoel Nicosia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krasava Ypsonas ↓

Apoel Nicosia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Krasava Ypsonas or draw

62%

Krasava Ypsonas or Apoel Nicosia

73%

Draw or Apoel Nicosia

65%

Winning margin

Krasava Ypsonas wins by 2+

15%

Apoel Nicosia wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Krasava Ypsonas 1+ goals

70%

Krasava Ypsonas 2+ goals

33%

Krasava Ypsonas 3+ goals

12%

Apoel Nicosia 1+ goals

71%

Apoel Nicosia 2+ goals

36%

Apoel Nicosia 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Krasava Ypsonas (draw refunded)

48%

Apoel Nicosia (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krasava Ypsonas at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

Apoel Nicosia away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.14 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krasava Ypsonas attack 1.24 + Apoel Nicosia defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.19

Apoel Nicosia attack 1.39 + Krasava Ypsonas defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Krasava Ypsonas scores more

35%

level

27%

Apoel Nicosia scores more

38%

Apoel Nicosia at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Apoel Nicosia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

17'

25'

34'

46'

48'

60'

61'

66'

S. Vrontis← Marquinhos

72'

M. Koumouris← T. Barry

72'

T. Kyprou← I. Chebake

72'

E. Kyriakou← Y. Bahassa

79'

C. Yebli← M. de Iriondo

81'

I. Christodoulou

87'

Geovane Meurer← G. Satsias

90+5'

E. Kyriakou

90+1'

S. Drazic← P. Sotiriou

90+1'

Diego Rosa← M. Corbu

Krasava

Apoel

27

Belec

3

Stafylidi

7

Meyer

8

▼

Satsias

10

▼

Marquinho

11

▼

Maioli

20

Dalcio

30

⚽

▼

Corbu

31

Brorsson

34

Laifis

79

⚽

▼

Sotiriou

91

Zadro

3

Lucas

5

⚽

6

7

10

11

▼

Barry

23

▼

Iriondo

28

▼

Bahassa

29

▼

Chebake

33

Cesar

72'▲M. Koumouris←▼T. Barry

72'▲T. Kyprou←▼I. Chebake

72'▲E. Kyriakou←▼Y. Bahassa

79'▲C. Yebli←▼M. de Iriondo

Krasava Ypsonas substitutes

1Priniotaki8Yebli14Koumouris17Kyprou24Stylianou31Snaidmans32Kyriakou34Chatzivarnava75Avramenko

Manager: E. Samios

46'▲Nanu←▼Gabriel Maioli

66'▲S. Vrontis←▼Marquinhos

87'▲Geovane Meurer←▼G. Satsias

90+1'▲S. Drazic←▼P. Sotiriou

90+1'▲Diego Rosa←▼M. Corbu

Apoel Nicosia substitutes

1Pereira22Christodoulou2Antoniou6Meer9Drazic12Bah14Nanu29Rosa38Meurer45Giannakou76Vrontis89Koutsakos

1. Division: Krasava Ypsonas 1–2 Apoel Nicosia

Apoel Nicosia beat Krasava Ypsonas 2-1 in 1. Division on August 24, 2025.

Goals: M. Corbu (15'), P. Sotiriou (61'), I. Christodoulou (81').

The match was played at Ammochostos Stadium in Larnaca.

Krasava Ypsonas vs Apoel Nicosia — 1. Division 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

1. Division: Krasava Ypsonas 1–2 Apoel Nicosia