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Králův Dvůr vs Jindřichův Hradec — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Králův Dvůr
Králův Dvůr
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Jindřichův Hradec
Jindřichův Hradec
5/16/20254. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 26Městský Stadion Králův Dvůr

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Králův Dvůr77%
×Draw14%
Jindřichův Hradec9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Králův Dvůr
2.88
Jindřichův Hradec
0.91

Králův Dvůr creates 216% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 56 away

creates per match

Králův Dvůr
3.27
Jindřichův Hradec
1.14

allows per match

Králův Dvůr
0.67
Jindřichův Hradec
2.50

finishing

Králův Dvůr+0.00on par
Jindřichův Hradec+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Králův Dvůr ↓

Jindřichův Hradec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Králův Dvůr or draw
91%
Králův Dvůr or Jindřichův Hradec
86%
Draw or Jindřichův Hradec
23%

Winning margin

Králův Dvůr wins by 2+
57%
Jindřichův Hradec wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Králův Dvůr 1+ goals
94%
Králův Dvůr 2+ goals
78%
Králův Dvůr 3+ goals
54%
Jindřichův Hradec 1+ goals
60%
Jindřichův Hradec 2+ goals
23%
Jindřichův Hradec 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Králův Dvůr (draw refunded)
89%
Jindřichův Hradec (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Králův Dvůr at home — creates 3.27, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Jindřichův Hradec away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.50 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Králův Dvůr attack 3.27 + Jindřichův Hradec defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.88

Jindřichův Hradec attack 1.14 + Králův Dvůr defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Králův Dvůr scores more
77%
level
14%
Jindřichův Hradec scores more
9%

Králův Dvůr at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Králův Dvůr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie A: Králův Dvůr 3–1 Jindřichův Hradec

Králův Dvůr beat Jindřichův Hradec 3-1 in 4. liga - Divizie A on May 16, 2025.

The match was played at Městský Stadion Králův Dvůr in Králuv Dvůr.