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Jindřichův Hradec vs Králův Dvůr — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Jindřichův Hradec
Jindřichův Hradec
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Králův Dvůr
Králův Dvůr
10/20/20244. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 11Hřiště Vajgar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Jindřichův Hradec16%
×Draw18%
Králův Dvůr67%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jindřichův Hradec
1.13
Králův Dvůr
2.50

Králův Dvůr creates 121% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 15 away

creates per match

Jindřichův Hradec
1.45
Králův Dvůr
2.80

allows per match

Jindřichův Hradec
2.21
Králův Dvůr
0.80

finishing

Jindřichův Hradec+0.00on par
Králův Dvůr+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jindřichův Hradec ↓

Králův Dvůr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Jindřichův Hradec or draw
33%
Jindřichův Hradec or Králův Dvůr
82%
Draw or Králův Dvůr
84%

Winning margin

Jindřichův Hradec wins by 2+
6%
Králův Dvůr wins by 2+
45%

Team goals

Jindřichův Hradec 1+ goals
68%
Jindřichův Hradec 2+ goals
31%
Jindřichův Hradec 3+ goals
11%
Králův Dvůr 1+ goals
92%
Králův Dvůr 2+ goals
71%
Králův Dvůr 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Jindřichův Hradec (draw refunded)
19%
Králův Dvůr (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jindřichův Hradec at home — creates 1.45, concedes 2.21 · 53 matches

Králův Dvůr away — creates 2.80, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jindřichův Hradec attack 1.45 + Králův Dvůr defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.13

Králův Dvůr attack 2.80 + Jindřichův Hradec defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Jindřichův Hradec scores more
16%
level
18%
Králův Dvůr scores more
67%

Králův Dvůr at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Králův Dvůr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jindřichův Hradec 0 – 2 Králův Dvůr

Králův Dvůr beat Jindřichův Hradec 2-0 in 4. liga - Divizie A on October 20, 2024.

The match was played at Hřiště Vajgar in Jindřichův Hradec.