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Králův Dvůr vs Admira Praha — 3. liga - CFL A 2019

Králův Dvůr
Králův Dvůr
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Admira Praha
Admira Praha
5/20/20233. liga - CFL A3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 27Městský Stadion Králův Dvůr

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Králův Dvůr46%
×Draw23%
Admira Praha31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Králův Dvůr
1.79
Admira Praha
1.43

Králův Dvůr creates 25% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 83 away

creates per match

Králův Dvůr
1.93
Admira Praha
1.46

allows per match

Králův Dvůr
1.40
Admira Praha
1.66

finishing

Králův Dvůr+0.00on par
Admira Praha+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Králův Dvůr ↓

Admira Praha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Králův Dvůr or draw
69%
Králův Dvůr or Admira Praha
77%
Draw or Admira Praha
54%

Winning margin

Králův Dvůr wins by 2+
25%
Admira Praha wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Králův Dvůr 1+ goals
83%
Králův Dvůr 2+ goals
53%
Králův Dvůr 3+ goals
26%
Admira Praha 1+ goals
76%
Admira Praha 2+ goals
42%
Admira Praha 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Králův Dvůr (draw refunded)
60%
Admira Praha (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Králův Dvůr at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.40 · 70 matches

Admira Praha away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.66 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Králův Dvůr attack 1.93 + Admira Praha defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.79

Admira Praha attack 1.46 + Králův Dvůr defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Králův Dvůr scores more
46%
level
23%
Admira Praha scores more
31%

Králův Dvůr at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Králův Dvůr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Králův Dvůr vs Admira Praha

Admira Praha beat Králův Dvůr 3-0 in 3. liga - CFL A on May 20, 2023.

The match was played at Městský Stadion Králův Dvůr in Králuv Dvůr.