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Admira Praha vs Králův Dvůr — 3. liga - CFL A 2019

Admira Praha
Admira Praha
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Králův Dvůr
Králův Dvůr
11/9/20253. liga - CFL A3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 14Stadium Admira Prague

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Admira Praha47%
×Draw24%
Králův Dvůr29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Admira Praha
1.64
Králův Dvůr
1.23

Admira Praha creates 33% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 70 away

creates per match

Admira Praha
1.31
Králův Dvůr
1.16

allows per match

Admira Praha
1.30
Králův Dvůr
1.97

finishing

Admira Praha+0.00on par
Králův Dvůr+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Admira Praha ↓

Králův Dvůr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Admira Praha or draw
71%
Admira Praha or Králův Dvůr
76%
Draw or Králův Dvůr
53%

Winning margin

Admira Praha wins by 2+
24%
Králův Dvůr wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Admira Praha 1+ goals
81%
Admira Praha 2+ goals
49%
Admira Praha 3+ goals
23%
Králův Dvůr 1+ goals
71%
Králův Dvůr 2+ goals
35%
Králův Dvůr 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Admira Praha (draw refunded)
62%
Králův Dvůr (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Admira Praha at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.30 · 87 matches

Králův Dvůr away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.97 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Admira Praha attack 1.31 + Králův Dvůr defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.64

Králův Dvůr attack 1.16 + Admira Praha defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Admira Praha scores more
47%
level
24%
Králův Dvůr scores more
29%

Admira Praha at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Admira Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - CFL A: Admira Praha 3–1 Králův Dvůr

Admira Praha beat Králův Dvůr 3-1 in 3. liga - CFL A on November 9, 2025.

The match was played at Stadium Admira Prague.