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Kraig vs Austria Klagenfurt II — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Kraig
Kraig
FT
1 – 3
Austria Klagenfurt II
Austria Klagenfurt II
3/25/2023Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 22Sportanlage Frauenstein

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Kraig40%
×Draw24%
Austria Klagenfurt II36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kraig
1.60
Austria Klagenfurt II
1.49

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 62 home / 60 away

creates per match

Kraig
1.71
Austria Klagenfurt II
1.38

allows per match

Kraig
1.60
Austria Klagenfurt II
1.50

finishing

Kraig+0.00on par
Austria Klagenfurt II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kraig ↓

Austria Klagenfurt II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Kraig or draw
64%
Kraig or Austria Klagenfurt II
76%
Draw or Austria Klagenfurt II
60%

Winning margin

Kraig wins by 2+
20%
Austria Klagenfurt II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Kraig 1+ goals
80%
Kraig 2+ goals
47%
Kraig 3+ goals
22%
Austria Klagenfurt II 1+ goals
77%
Austria Klagenfurt II 2+ goals
44%
Austria Klagenfurt II 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Kraig (draw refunded)
53%
Austria Klagenfurt II (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kraig at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.60 · 62 matches

Austria Klagenfurt II away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.50 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kraig attack 1.71 + Austria Klagenfurt II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.60

Austria Klagenfurt II attack 1.38 + Kraig defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kraig scores more
40%
level
24%
Austria Klagenfurt II scores more
36%

Kraig at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kraig will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kraig vs Austria Klagenfurt II

Austria Klagenfurt II beat Kraig 3-1 in Landesliga - Karnten on March 25, 2023.

The match was played at Sportanlage Frauenstein in Kraig.