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Austria Klagenfurt II vs Kraig — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Austria Klagenfurt II
Austria Klagenfurt II
FT
0 – 1
Kraig
Kraig
9/30/2023Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 11Sportanlage Brückl

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Austria Klagenfurt II58%
×Draw21%
Kraig21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Austria Klagenfurt II
2.07
Kraig
1.17

Austria Klagenfurt II creates 77% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 63 away

creates per match

Austria Klagenfurt II
1.95
Kraig
1.06

allows per match

Austria Klagenfurt II
1.27
Kraig
2.19

finishing

Austria Klagenfurt II+0.00on par
Kraig+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria Klagenfurt II ↓

Kraig →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Austria Klagenfurt II or draw
79%
Austria Klagenfurt II or Kraig
79%
Draw or Kraig
42%

Winning margin

Austria Klagenfurt II wins by 2+
35%
Kraig wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Austria Klagenfurt II 1+ goals
87%
Austria Klagenfurt II 2+ goals
61%
Austria Klagenfurt II 3+ goals
34%
Kraig 1+ goals
69%
Kraig 2+ goals
33%
Kraig 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Austria Klagenfurt II (draw refunded)
73%
Kraig (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria Klagenfurt II at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.27 · 60 matches

Kraig away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.19 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria Klagenfurt II attack 1.95 + Kraig defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.07

Kraig attack 1.06 + Austria Klagenfurt II defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Austria Klagenfurt II scores more
58%
level
21%
Kraig scores more
21%

Austria Klagenfurt II at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Austria Klagenfurt II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Austria Klagenfurt II vs Kraig

Kraig beat Austria Klagenfurt II 1-0 in Landesliga - Karnten on September 30, 2023.

The match was played at Sportanlage Brückl in Brückl.