Krabi FC 2–3 Army United: Result & Stats

Krabi FC

FT

2 – 3

Army United

3/17/2018

Thai League 2 · Round 6Krabi Provincial Stadium (Krabi)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Krabi FC38%

×Draw28%

Army United34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Krabi FCExpected goals in this matchArmy United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.12

Krabi FC

1.20

Army United

1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 31 away

1.04

creates per match

1.16

1.08

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Krabi FC

1.04

Army United

1.16

allows per match

Krabi FC

1.08

Army United

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Krabi FC+0.00on par

Army United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krabi FC ↓

Army United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Krabi FC or draw

66%

Krabi FC or Army United

72%

Draw or Army United

62%

Winning margin

Krabi FC wins by 2+

16%

Army United wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Krabi FC 1+ goals

70%

Krabi FC 2+ goals

34%

Krabi FC 3+ goals

12%

Army United 1+ goals

67%

Army United 2+ goals

31%

Army United 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Krabi FC (draw refunded)

53%

Army United (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krabi FC at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.08 · 48 matches

Army United away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.35 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krabi FC attack 1.04 + Army United defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.20

Army United attack 1.16 + Krabi FC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Krabi FC scores more

38%

level

28%

Army United scores more

34%

Krabi FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Krabi FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff