Army United 1–1 Krabi FC: Result & Stats

Army United

FT

1 – 1

Krabi FC

7/8/2018

Thai League 2 · Round 20Thai Army Sports Stadium (Bangkok)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Army United58%

×Draw21%

Krabi FC21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Army UnitedExpected goals in this matchKrabi FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.17

Army United

2.10

Krabi FC

1.17

Army United creates 79% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 46 away

1.97

creates per match

0.96

1.37

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Army United

1.97

Krabi FC

0.96

allows per match

Army United

1.37

Krabi FC

2.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Army United+0.00on par

Krabi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Army United ↓

Krabi FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Army United or draw

79%

Army United or Krabi FC

79%

Draw or Krabi FC

42%

Winning margin

Army United wins by 2+

36%

Krabi FC wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Army United 1+ goals

88%

Army United 2+ goals

62%

Army United 3+ goals

35%

Krabi FC 1+ goals

69%

Krabi FC 2+ goals

33%

Krabi FC 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Army United (draw refunded)

74%

Krabi FC (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Army United at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.37 · 30 matches

Krabi FC away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.22 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Army United attack 1.97 + Krabi FC defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.10

Krabi FC attack 0.96 + Army United defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Army United scores more

58%

level

21%

Krabi FC scores more

21%

Army United at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Army United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff