KR Reykjavik 1–2 KA Akureyri: Result & Stats

KR Reykjavik

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

KA Akureyri

A. Sigurdarson 71'

H. Steingrimsson 69', 65'

7/6/2025

Úrvalsdeild · Round 14AVIS völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

KR Reykjavik58%

×Draw18%

KA Akureyri23%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KR ReykjavikExpected goals in this matchKA Akureyri

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.63

1.64

KR Reykjavik

2.63

KA Akureyri

1.64

KR Reykjavik creates 60% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 20 away

2.92

creates per match

1.40

1.88

allows per match

2.35

creates per match

KR Reykjavik

2.92

KA Akureyri

1.40

allows per match

KR Reykjavik

1.88

KA Akureyri

2.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KR Reykjavik+0.00on par

KA Akureyri+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KR Reykjavik ↓

KA Akureyri →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

KR Reykjavik or draw

77%

KR Reykjavik or KA Akureyri

82%

Draw or KA Akureyri

42%

Winning margin

KR Reykjavik wins by 2+

38%

KA Akureyri wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

KR Reykjavik 1+ goals

93%

KR Reykjavik 2+ goals

73%

KR Reykjavik 3+ goals

48%

KA Akureyri 1+ goals

81%

KA Akureyri 2+ goals

49%

KA Akureyri 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

KR Reykjavik (draw refunded)

71%

KA Akureyri (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KR Reykjavik at home — creates 2.92, concedes 1.88 · 26 matches

KA Akureyri away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.35 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KR Reykjavik attack 2.92 + KA Akureyri defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.63

KA Akureyri attack 1.40 + KR Reykjavik defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

KR Reykjavik scores more

58%

level

18%

KA Akureyri scores more

23%

KR Reykjavik at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "KR Reykjavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

G. Eyjolfsson

18'

I. Arnason

21'

G. Hrafnkelsson← A. Sigurgeirsson

26'

H. Steingrimsson

65'

H. Steingrimsson

69'

A. Andrason← M. Praest

69'

H. Steingrimsson↳ I. Stole

71'

A. Sigurdarson

76'

A. Albertsson

76'

A. Sigurdarson← G. Tryggvason

77'

K. Gautason← H. Steingrimsson

80'

Rodri

90+5'

K. Gautason

90'

A. Palmason← A. Albertsson

90'

M. Thordarson← B. Adalsteinsson

90'

D. Valsson← I. Stole

KR

KA

12

Tonning

22

▼

Steingrim

26

A

▼

Stole

77

▼

5

28

8

4

11

▼

Sigurgeir

29

Arnason

10

⚽2

12

15

22

29

▼

Albertsso

28

Sigurdsso

21

Eyjolfsso

10

▼

Tryggvaso

4

Bjarnason

16

▼

Praest

9

Saebjorns

11

⚽

Sigurdars

Manager: Óskar Hrafn Þorvaldsson

69'▲A. Andrason←▼M. Praest

76'▲A. Sigurdarson←▼G. Tryggvason

90'▲A. Palmason←▼A. Albertsson

KR Reykjavik substitutes

1Ingolfsson99Tryggvason6Sigurdarson14Palmason18Thorlacius20Andrason27Hlynsson33Ingimarsson37Gunnarsson

Manager: Hallgrímur Jónasson

21'▲G. Hrafnkelsson←▼A. Sigurgeirsson

77'▲K. Gautason←▼H. Steingrimsson

90'▲M. Thordarson←▼B. Adalsteinsson

90'▲D. Valsson←▼I. Stole

KA Akureyri substitutes

99Ingolfsson3Gautason14Stefansson21Thordarson23Petursson25Valsson30Hrafnkelsson44Saevarsson88Davidsson