KA Akureyri 0–2 KR Reykjavik: Result & Stats

KA Akureyri

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

KR Reykjavik

Unknown 90'

L. Rae 73' (pen)

1/31/2026

League #168 · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

KA Akureyri12%

×Draw15%

KR Reykjavik73%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KA AkureyriExpected goals in this matchKR Reykjavik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

2.79

KA Akureyri

1.03

KR Reykjavik

2.79

KR Reykjavik creates 171% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

1.20

creates per match

2.57

3.00

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

KA Akureyri

1.20

KR Reykjavik

2.57

allows per match

KA Akureyri

3.00

KR Reykjavik

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KA Akureyri+0.00on par

KR Reykjavik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KA Akureyri ↓

KR Reykjavik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–16%

0–29%

0–38%

0–46%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–29%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–34%

2–43%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

KA Akureyri or draw

27%

KA Akureyri or KR Reykjavik

85%

Draw or KR Reykjavik

88%

Winning margin

KA Akureyri wins by 2+

4%

KR Reykjavik wins by 2+

53%

Team goals

KA Akureyri 1+ goals

64%

KA Akureyri 2+ goals

28%

KA Akureyri 3+ goals

9%

KR Reykjavik 1+ goals

94%

KR Reykjavik 2+ goals

76%

KR Reykjavik 3+ goals

52%

Draw no bet

KA Akureyri (draw refunded)

14%

KR Reykjavik (draw refunded)

86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KA Akureyri at home — creates 1.20, concedes 3.00 · 5 matches

KR Reykjavik away — creates 2.57, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KA Akureyri attack 1.20 + KR Reykjavik defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.03

KR Reykjavik attack 2.57 + KA Akureyri defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

KA Akureyri scores more

12%

level

15%

KR Reykjavik scores more

73%

KR Reykjavik at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "KR Reykjavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

73'

L. RaePenalty

90'

KA

KR

Manager: Hallgrimur Jonasson

Manager: Oskar Thorvaldsson