KR Reykjavik 7–1 Fram Reykjavik: Result & Stats

KR Reykjavik

FT

7 – 1

HT: 4 – 0

Fram Reykjavik

A. Sigurjónsson 89'

Ó. Bjarkason 86'

B. Andrésson 52', 31', 12', 7'

L. Rae 42'

M. Ellertsson 85'

9/29/2024

Úrvalsdeild · Relegation Round - 2KR-völlur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

KR Reykjavik54%

×Draw19%

Fram Reykjavik27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KR ReykjavikExpected goals in this matchFram Reykjavik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.50

1.73

KR Reykjavik

2.50

Fram Reykjavik

1.73

KR Reykjavik creates 45% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 22 away

2.92

creates per match

1.59

1.88

allows per match

2.09

creates per match

KR Reykjavik

2.92

Fram Reykjavik

1.59

allows per match

KR Reykjavik

1.88

Fram Reykjavik

2.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KR Reykjavik+0.00on par

Fram Reykjavik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KR Reykjavik ↓

Fram Reykjavik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

KR Reykjavik or draw

73%

KR Reykjavik or Fram Reykjavik

81%

Draw or Fram Reykjavik

46%

Winning margin

KR Reykjavik wins by 2+

34%

Fram Reykjavik wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

KR Reykjavik 1+ goals

92%

KR Reykjavik 2+ goals

71%

KR Reykjavik 3+ goals

45%

Fram Reykjavik 1+ goals

82%

Fram Reykjavik 2+ goals

52%

Fram Reykjavik 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

KR Reykjavik (draw refunded)

67%

Fram Reykjavik (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KR Reykjavik at home — creates 2.92, concedes 1.88 · 26 matches

Fram Reykjavik away — creates 1.59, concedes 2.09 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KR Reykjavik attack 2.92 + Fram Reykjavik defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 2.50

Fram Reykjavik attack 1.59 + KR Reykjavik defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

KR Reykjavik scores more

54%

level

19%

Fram Reykjavik scores more

27%

KR Reykjavik at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "KR Reykjavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

B. Andrésson↳ A. Sigurjónsson

12'

B. Andrésson↳ A. Albertsson

31'

B. Andrésson↳ A. Sigurðarson

42'

L. Rae↳ A. Albertsson

46'

A. Hauksson← A. Albertsson

46'

T. Geirsson← F. Sigurðsson

46'

O. Sigurjónsson← B. Guðjónsson

52'

B. Andrésson↳ A. Sigurðarson

58'

M. Ellertsson← M. Þórðarson

64'

G. Dahl← Tiago Fernandes

66'

A. Pálmason← G. Guðbrandsson

67'

O. Sigurjonsson

72'

E. Wöhler← E. Bjarnason

74'

F. Palmason

78'

Ó. Bjarkason← B. Andrésson

83'

S. Gudmundsson

84'

J. Bjarnason

85'

M. Ellertsson

86'

Ó. Bjarkason↳ J. Bjarnason

87'

H. Andrason← D. Daniels

89'

A. Sigurjónsson↳ E. Wöhler

90+3'

O. Sigurjonsson

90+3'

O. Sigurjonsson

KR

Fram

1

Ólafsson

2

▼

9

17

8

27

28

▼

Fernandes

10

Saraiva

11

▼

Þórðarson

25

▼

Sigurðsso

14

▼

12

7

25

16

▼

Bjarnason

23

⚽A

Sigurjóns

11

A

Sigurðars

29

A

▼

Albertsso

15

▼

Guðbrands

17

⚽

Rae

4

A

Bjarnason

9

⚽4

▼

Andrésson

Manager: P. Pálmason

46'▲A. Hauksson←▼A. Albertsson

66'▲A. Pálmason←▼G. Guðbrandsson

72'▲E. Wöhler←▼E. Bjarnason

78'▲Ó. Bjarkason←▼B. Andrésson

KR Reykjavik substitutes

6Hauksson26Pálmason19Wöhler47Bjarkason1Ingólfsson30Gunnarsson45Guðmundsson

Manager: R. Kristinsson

46'▲T. Geirsson←▼F. Sigurðsson

46'▲O. Sigurjónsson←▼B. Guðjónsson

58'▲M. Ellertsson←▼M. Þórðarson

64'▲G. Dahl←▼Tiago Fernandes

87'▲H. Andrason←▼D. Daniels

Fram Reykjavik substitutes

6Geirsson4Sigurjónsson19Ellertsson32Dahl20Andrason12Hannesson31Thorsteinson