Fram Reykjavik 0–1 KR Reykjavik: Result & Stats

Fram Reykjavik

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

KR Reykjavik

G. Gudmundsson 32'

8/18/2025

Úrvalsdeild · Round 19Lambhagavöllurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Fram Reykjavik51%

×Draw20%

KR Reykjavik29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fram ReykjavikExpected goals in this matchKR Reykjavik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.31

1.73

Fram Reykjavik

2.31

KR Reykjavik

1.73

Fram Reykjavik creates 34% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 25 away

2.19

creates per match

2.16

1.29

allows per match

2.44

creates per match

Fram Reykjavik

2.19

KR Reykjavik

2.16

allows per match

Fram Reykjavik

1.29

KR Reykjavik

2.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fram Reykjavik+0.00on par

KR Reykjavik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fram Reykjavik ↓

KR Reykjavik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Fram Reykjavik or draw

71%

Fram Reykjavik or KR Reykjavik

80%

Draw or KR Reykjavik

49%

Winning margin

Fram Reykjavik wins by 2+

31%

KR Reykjavik wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Fram Reykjavik 1+ goals

90%

Fram Reykjavik 2+ goals

67%

Fram Reykjavik 3+ goals

40%

KR Reykjavik 1+ goals

82%

KR Reykjavik 2+ goals

52%

KR Reykjavik 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Fram Reykjavik (draw refunded)

63%

KR Reykjavik (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fram Reykjavik at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.29 · 21 matches

KR Reykjavik away — creates 2.16, concedes 2.44 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fram Reykjavik attack 2.19 + KR Reykjavik defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.31

KR Reykjavik attack 2.16 + Fram Reykjavik defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Fram Reykjavik scores more

51%

level

20%

KR Reykjavik scores more

29%

Fram Reykjavik at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Fram Reykjavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

16'

32'

45+2'

52'

68'

A. Thordarson← A. Cosic

75'

H. Sigurdsson← G. Gudmundsson

80'

M. Akoto← A. Albertsson

83'

T. Geirsson← F. Sigurdsson

83'

I. Garcia← T. Thorbjornsson

86'

A. Elisson← M. Aegisson

90+4'

I. Garcia

90+6'

J. Juliusson

Fram

KR

12

Georgsson

15

Gudbrands

3

Juliusson

29

▼

7

21

16

77

19

▼

Cosic

45

⚽

▼

Gudmundss

9

Saebjorns

22

Sigurdsso

23

▼

Aegisson

5

McLagan

26

Runarsson

3

▼

Thorbjorn

8

Asgrimsso

25

▼

12

10

9

15

Manager: Rúnar Kristinsson

83'▲T. Geirsson←▼F. Sigurdsson

83'▲I. Garcia←▼T. Thorbjornsson

86'▲A. Elisson←▼M. Aegisson

Fram Reykjavik substitutes

1Arnaldarson6Geirsson11Thordarson16Garcia29Dimitrijevic30Konradsson32Andrason33Pauzuolis71Elisson

Manager: Óskar Hrafn Þorvaldsson

68'▲A. Thordarson←▼A. Cosic

75'▲H. Sigurdsson←▼G. Gudmundsson

80'▲M. Akoto←▼A. Albertsson

KR Reykjavik substitutes

1Olafsson4Akoto5Styrmisson6Sigurdarson18Thorlacius22Thordarson27Hlynsson28Sigurdsson30Karason

Match Recap: Fram Reykjavik vs KR Reykjavik

KR Reykjavik beat Fram Reykjavik 1-0 in Úrvalsdeild on August 18, 2025.

Goals: G. Gudmundsson (32').

The match was played at Lambhagavöllurinn in Reykjavík.

Fram Reykjavik vs KR Reykjavik — Úrvalsdeild 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Fram Reykjavik vs KR Reykjavik