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KPV Kokkola vs Inter Turku — Veikkausliiga 2018

KPV Kokkola
KPV Kokkola
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Inter Turku
Inter Turku
6/16/2019VeikkausliigaVeikkausliiga · Round 11Kokkolan keskuskenttä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

KPV Kokkola32%
×Draw25%
Inter Turku43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KPV Kokkola
1.25
Inter Turku
1.50

Inter Turku creates 20% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 118 away

creates per match

KPV Kokkola
1.15
Inter Turku
1.38

allows per match

KPV Kokkola
1.62
Inter Turku
1.34

finishing

KPV Kokkola+0.00on par
Inter Turku+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KPV Kokkola ↓

Inter Turku →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

KPV Kokkola or draw
57%
KPV Kokkola or Inter Turku
75%
Draw or Inter Turku
68%

Winning margin

KPV Kokkola wins by 2+
13%
Inter Turku wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

KPV Kokkola 1+ goals
71%
KPV Kokkola 2+ goals
36%
KPV Kokkola 3+ goals
13%
Inter Turku 1+ goals
78%
Inter Turku 2+ goals
44%
Inter Turku 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

KPV Kokkola (draw refunded)
42%
Inter Turku (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KPV Kokkola at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

Inter Turku away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.34 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KPV Kokkola attack 1.15 + Inter Turku defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.25

Inter Turku attack 1.38 + KPV Kokkola defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

KPV Kokkola scores more
32%
level
25%
Inter Turku scores more
43%

Inter Turku at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Inter Turku will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Veikkausliiga: KPV Kokkola 1–3 Inter Turku

Inter Turku beat KPV Kokkola 3-1 in Veikkausliiga on June 16, 2019.

The match was played at Kokkolan keskuskenttä in Kokkola.