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Inter Turku vs KPV Kokkola — Veikkausliiga 2018

Inter Turku
Inter Turku
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
KPV Kokkola
KPV Kokkola
8/26/2019VeikkausliigaVeikkausliiga · Round 21Veritas Stadion (Turku (Åbo))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Inter Turku52%
×Draw23%
KPV Kokkola24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Turku
1.77
KPV Kokkola
1.13

Inter Turku creates 57% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 14 away

creates per match

Inter Turku
1.68
KPV Kokkola
1.21

allows per match

Inter Turku
1.04
KPV Kokkola
1.86

finishing

Inter Turku+0.00on par
KPV Kokkola+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Turku ↓

KPV Kokkola →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Inter Turku or draw
76%
Inter Turku or KPV Kokkola
77%
Draw or KPV Kokkola
48%

Winning margin

Inter Turku wins by 2+
29%
KPV Kokkola wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Inter Turku 1+ goals
83%
Inter Turku 2+ goals
53%
Inter Turku 3+ goals
26%
KPV Kokkola 1+ goals
68%
KPV Kokkola 2+ goals
31%
KPV Kokkola 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Inter Turku (draw refunded)
68%
KPV Kokkola (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Turku at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.04 · 120 matches

KPV Kokkola away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Turku attack 1.68 + KPV Kokkola defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.77

KPV Kokkola attack 1.21 + Inter Turku defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Inter Turku scores more
52%
level
23%
KPV Kokkola scores more
24%

Inter Turku at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Inter Turku will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Veikkausliiga: Inter Turku 2–1 KPV Kokkola

Inter Turku beat KPV Kokkola 2-1 in Veikkausliiga on August 26, 2019.

The match was played at Veritas Stadion (Turku (Åbo)).