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KPV Kokkola vs HJK Helsinki — Veikkausliiga 2018

KPV Kokkola
KPV Kokkola
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
HJK Helsinki
HJK Helsinki
8/18/2019VeikkausliigaVeikkausliiga · Round 20OmaSP Stadion (Seinäjoki)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

KPV Kokkola25%
×Draw25%
HJK Helsinki50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KPV Kokkola
1.07
HJK Helsinki
1.61

HJK Helsinki creates 50% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 118 away

creates per match

KPV Kokkola
1.15
HJK Helsinki
1.60

allows per match

KPV Kokkola
1.62
HJK Helsinki
0.99

finishing

KPV Kokkola+0.00on par
HJK Helsinki+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KPV Kokkola ↓

HJK Helsinki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

KPV Kokkola or draw
50%
KPV Kokkola or HJK Helsinki
75%
Draw or HJK Helsinki
75%

Winning margin

KPV Kokkola wins by 2+
9%
HJK Helsinki wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

KPV Kokkola 1+ goals
66%
KPV Kokkola 2+ goals
29%
KPV Kokkola 3+ goals
9%
HJK Helsinki 1+ goals
80%
HJK Helsinki 2+ goals
48%
HJK Helsinki 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

KPV Kokkola (draw refunded)
34%
HJK Helsinki (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KPV Kokkola at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

HJK Helsinki away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.99 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KPV Kokkola attack 1.15 + HJK Helsinki defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.07

HJK Helsinki attack 1.60 + KPV Kokkola defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

KPV Kokkola scores more
25%
level
25%
HJK Helsinki scores more
50%

HJK Helsinki at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "HJK Helsinki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Veikkausliiga: KPV Kokkola 2–1 HJK Helsinki

KPV Kokkola beat HJK Helsinki 2-1 in Veikkausliiga on August 18, 2019.

The match was played at OmaSP Stadion (Seinäjoki).