Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

HJK Helsinki vs KPV Kokkola — Veikkausliiga 2018

HJK Helsinki
HJK Helsinki
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
KPV Kokkola
KPV Kokkola
5/26/2019VeikkausliigaVeikkausliiga · Round 10Telia 5G -areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

HJK Helsinki57%
×Draw22%
KPV Kokkola21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HJK Helsinki
1.92
KPV Kokkola
1.08

HJK Helsinki creates 78% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 14 away

creates per match

HJK Helsinki
1.97
KPV Kokkola
1.21

allows per match

HJK Helsinki
0.95
KPV Kokkola
1.86

finishing

HJK Helsinki+0.00on par
KPV Kokkola+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HJK Helsinki ↓

KPV Kokkola →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

HJK Helsinki or draw
79%
HJK Helsinki or KPV Kokkola
78%
Draw or KPV Kokkola
43%

Winning margin

HJK Helsinki wins by 2+
33%
KPV Kokkola wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

HJK Helsinki 1+ goals
85%
HJK Helsinki 2+ goals
57%
HJK Helsinki 3+ goals
30%
KPV Kokkola 1+ goals
66%
KPV Kokkola 2+ goals
29%
KPV Kokkola 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

HJK Helsinki (draw refunded)
73%
KPV Kokkola (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HJK Helsinki at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.95 · 121 matches

KPV Kokkola away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HJK Helsinki attack 1.97 + KPV Kokkola defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.92

KPV Kokkola attack 1.21 + HJK Helsinki defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

HJK Helsinki scores more
57%
level
22%
KPV Kokkola scores more
21%

HJK Helsinki at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "HJK Helsinki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: HJK Helsinki vs KPV Kokkola

HJK Helsinki beat KPV Kokkola 3-1 in Veikkausliiga on May 26, 2019.

The match was played at Telia 5G -areena in Helsinki.