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Kozuv Gevgelija vs Detonit Plachkovica — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Kozuv Gevgelija
Kozuv Gevgelija
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Detonit Plachkovica
Detonit Plachkovica
2/14/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kozuv Gevgelija20%
×Draw23%
Detonit Plachkovica57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kozuv Gevgelija
0.94
Detonit Plachkovica
1.77

Detonit Plachkovica creates 88% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Kozuv Gevgelija
1.20
Detonit Plachkovica
2.33

allows per match

Kozuv Gevgelija
1.20
Detonit Plachkovica
0.67

finishing

Kozuv Gevgelija+0.00on par
Detonit Plachkovica+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kozuv Gevgelija ↓

Detonit Plachkovica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Kozuv Gevgelija or draw
43%
Kozuv Gevgelija or Detonit Plachkovica
77%
Draw or Detonit Plachkovica
80%

Winning margin

Kozuv Gevgelija wins by 2+
7%
Detonit Plachkovica wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Kozuv Gevgelija 1+ goals
61%
Kozuv Gevgelija 2+ goals
24%
Kozuv Gevgelija 3+ goals
7%
Detonit Plachkovica 1+ goals
83%
Detonit Plachkovica 2+ goals
53%
Detonit Plachkovica 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Kozuv Gevgelija (draw refunded)
26%
Detonit Plachkovica (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kozuv Gevgelija at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Detonit Plachkovica away — creates 2.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kozuv Gevgelija attack 1.20 + Detonit Plachkovica defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.94

Detonit Plachkovica attack 2.33 + Kozuv Gevgelija defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Kozuv Gevgelija scores more
20%
level
23%
Detonit Plachkovica scores more
57%

Detonit Plachkovica at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Detonit Plachkovica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Kozuv Gevgelija 1–1 Detonit Plachkovica

Kozuv Gevgelija and Detonit Plachkovica drew 1-1 in Friendlies Clubs on February 14, 2026.