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Kozuv Gevgelija vs Detonit Plachkovica — Second League 2019

Kozuv Gevgelija
Kozuv Gevgelija
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Detonit Plachkovica
Detonit Plachkovica
9/28/2024Second LeagueSecond League · Round 6Stadion FK Kožuf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Kozuv Gevgelija42%
×Draw26%
Detonit Plachkovica32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kozuv Gevgelija
1.43
Detonit Plachkovica
1.20

Kozuv Gevgelija creates 19% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 60 away

creates per match

Kozuv Gevgelija
1.71
Detonit Plachkovica
1.33

allows per match

Kozuv Gevgelija
1.07
Detonit Plachkovica
1.15

finishing

Kozuv Gevgelija+0.00on par
Detonit Plachkovica+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kozuv Gevgelija ↓

Detonit Plachkovica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Kozuv Gevgelija or draw
68%
Kozuv Gevgelija or Detonit Plachkovica
74%
Draw or Detonit Plachkovica
58%

Winning margin

Kozuv Gevgelija wins by 2+
20%
Detonit Plachkovica wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Kozuv Gevgelija 1+ goals
76%
Kozuv Gevgelija 2+ goals
42%
Kozuv Gevgelija 3+ goals
17%
Detonit Plachkovica 1+ goals
70%
Detonit Plachkovica 2+ goals
34%
Detonit Plachkovica 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Kozuv Gevgelija (draw refunded)
57%
Detonit Plachkovica (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kozuv Gevgelija at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.07 · 83 matches

Detonit Plachkovica away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.15 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kozuv Gevgelija attack 1.71 + Detonit Plachkovica defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.43

Detonit Plachkovica attack 1.33 + Kozuv Gevgelija defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kozuv Gevgelija scores more
42%
level
26%
Detonit Plachkovica scores more
32%

Kozuv Gevgelija at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kozuv Gevgelija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Kozuv Gevgelija 0–0 Detonit Plachkovica

Kozuv Gevgelija and Detonit Plachkovica drew 0-0 in Second League on September 28, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion FK Kožuf in Gevgelija.