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Kozlovice vs HFK Olomouc — 4. liga - Divizie E 2019

Kozlovice
Kozlovice
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
HFK Olomouc
HFK Olomouc
5/21/20234. liga - Divizie E4. liga - Divizie E · Division E - 23Areal Sportu Kozlovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Kozlovice64%
×Draw19%
HFK Olomouc18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kozlovice
2.42
HFK Olomouc
1.20

Kozlovice creates 102% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 66 away

creates per match

Kozlovice
2.39
HFK Olomouc
1.21

allows per match

Kozlovice
1.19
HFK Olomouc
2.45

finishing

Kozlovice+0.00on par
HFK Olomouc+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kozlovice ↓

HFK Olomouc →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Kozlovice or draw
82%
Kozlovice or HFK Olomouc
81%
Draw or HFK Olomouc
36%

Winning margin

Kozlovice wins by 2+
42%
HFK Olomouc wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Kozlovice 1+ goals
91%
Kozlovice 2+ goals
69%
Kozlovice 3+ goals
43%
HFK Olomouc 1+ goals
70%
HFK Olomouc 2+ goals
34%
HFK Olomouc 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Kozlovice (draw refunded)
78%
HFK Olomouc (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kozlovice at home — creates 2.39, concedes 1.19 · 80 matches

HFK Olomouc away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.45 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kozlovice attack 2.39 + HFK Olomouc defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.42

HFK Olomouc attack 1.21 + Kozlovice defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Kozlovice scores more
64%
level
19%
HFK Olomouc scores more
18%

Kozlovice at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Kozlovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kozlovice vs HFK Olomouc

Kozlovice beat HFK Olomouc 1-0 in 4. liga - Divizie E on May 21, 2023.

The match was played at Areal Sportu Kozlovice in Kozlovice.