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HFK Olomouc vs Kozlovice — 4. liga - Divizie E 2019

HFK Olomouc
HFK Olomouc
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Kozlovice
Kozlovice
8/3/20244. liga - Divizie E4. liga - Divizie E · Division E - 1Stadion 1. HFK Olomouc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

HFK Olomouc29%
×Draw25%
Kozlovice46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HFK Olomouc
1.23
Kozlovice
1.62

Kozlovice creates 32% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 81 away

creates per match

HFK Olomouc
1.31
Kozlovice
1.72

allows per match

HFK Olomouc
1.52
Kozlovice
1.14

finishing

HFK Olomouc+0.00on par
Kozlovice+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HFK Olomouc ↓

Kozlovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

HFK Olomouc or draw
54%
HFK Olomouc or Kozlovice
75%
Draw or Kozlovice
71%

Winning margin

HFK Olomouc wins by 2+
12%
Kozlovice wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

HFK Olomouc 1+ goals
71%
HFK Olomouc 2+ goals
35%
HFK Olomouc 3+ goals
13%
Kozlovice 1+ goals
80%
Kozlovice 2+ goals
48%
Kozlovice 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

HFK Olomouc (draw refunded)
38%
Kozlovice (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HFK Olomouc at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.52 · 67 matches

Kozlovice away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.14 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HFK Olomouc attack 1.31 + Kozlovice defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.23

Kozlovice attack 1.72 + HFK Olomouc defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

HFK Olomouc scores more
29%
level
25%
Kozlovice scores more
46%

Kozlovice at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Kozlovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie E: HFK Olomouc 0–2 Kozlovice

Kozlovice beat HFK Olomouc 2-0 in 4. liga - Divizie E on August 3, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion 1. HFK Olomouc in Olomouc.