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Kozarmisleny FC vs Kazincbarcikai — League #273 2026

Kozarmisleny FC
Kozarmisleny FC
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Kazincbarcikai
Kazincbarcikai
T. Turi 83'
P. Horváth 75', 73'
Z. Tóth 26'
B. Kártik 79'
L. Pekár 72' (pen)
11/1/2023League #273League #273 · 4th RoundKozármislenyi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kozarmisleny FC27%
×Draw25%
Kazincbarcikai48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kozarmisleny FC
1.17
Kazincbarcikai
1.63

Kazincbarcikai creates 39% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Kozarmisleny FC
1.33
Kazincbarcikai
1.25

allows per match

Kozarmisleny FC
2.00
Kazincbarcikai
1.00

finishing

Kozarmisleny FC+0.00on par
Kazincbarcikai+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 53Under: 4753%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 55No: 4555%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kozarmisleny FC ↓

Kazincbarcikai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Kozarmisleny FC or draw
52%
Kozarmisleny FC or Kazincbarcikai
75%
Draw or Kazincbarcikai
73%

Winning margin

Kozarmisleny FC wins by 2+
11%
Kazincbarcikai wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Kozarmisleny FC 1+ goals
69%
Kozarmisleny FC 2+ goals
33%
Kozarmisleny FC 3+ goals
11%
Kazincbarcikai 1+ goals
80%
Kazincbarcikai 2+ goals
48%
Kazincbarcikai 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Kozarmisleny FC (draw refunded)
36%
Kazincbarcikai (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kozarmisleny FC at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Kazincbarcikai away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kozarmisleny FC attack 1.33 + Kazincbarcikai defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Kazincbarcikai attack 1.25 + Kozarmisleny FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kozarmisleny FC scores more
27%
level
25%
Kazincbarcikai scores more
48%

Kazincbarcikai at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Kazincbarcikai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
B. Szemere
24'
T. Turi
26'
Z. Tóth
40'
T. Csilus
56'
T. Szekszardi
61'
R. Schuszter
72'
L. PekárPenalty
73'
P. Horváth
75'
A. Suto
75'
P. Horváth
78'
G. Gajag
79'
B. Kártik
83'
T. Turi
87'
P. Beke
89'
P. Horvath
90+5'
P. Pinte
90+5'
M. Kotula

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kozarmisleny FC vs Kazincbarcikai

Kozarmisleny FC beat Kazincbarcikai 4-2 in League #273 on November 1, 2023.

Goals: Z. Tóth (26'), L. Pekár (72' pen), P. Horváth (73', 75'), B. Kártik (79'), T. Turi (83').

The match was played at Kozármislenyi Stadion in Kozármisleny.