Kazincbarcikai 2–3 Kozarmisleny FC: Result & Stats

Kazincbarcikai

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Kozarmisleny FC

I. Katona 87'

Lucas 49'

E. Kocs-Washburn 78'

K. Kirchner 70', 17'

9/29/2024

NB II · Round 8Kolorcity Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Kazincbarcikai51%

×Draw24%

Kozarmisleny FC25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KazincbarcikaiExpected goals in this matchKozarmisleny FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.15

Kazincbarcikai

1.75

Kozarmisleny FC

1.15

Kazincbarcikai creates 52% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 27 away

1.76

creates per match

1.30

1.00

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Kazincbarcikai

1.76

Kozarmisleny FC

1.30

allows per match

Kazincbarcikai

1.00

Kozarmisleny FC

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kazincbarcikai+0.00on par

Kozarmisleny FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kazincbarcikai ↓

Kozarmisleny FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Kazincbarcikai or draw

75%

Kazincbarcikai or Kozarmisleny FC

76%

Draw or Kozarmisleny FC

49%

Winning margin

Kazincbarcikai wins by 2+

28%

Kozarmisleny FC wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Kazincbarcikai 1+ goals

83%

Kazincbarcikai 2+ goals

52%

Kazincbarcikai 3+ goals

25%

Kozarmisleny FC 1+ goals

68%

Kozarmisleny FC 2+ goals

32%

Kozarmisleny FC 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Kazincbarcikai (draw refunded)

67%

Kozarmisleny FC (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kazincbarcikai at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

Kozarmisleny FC away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.74 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kazincbarcikai attack 1.76 + Kozarmisleny FC defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.75

Kozarmisleny FC attack 1.30 + Kazincbarcikai defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Kazincbarcikai scores more

51%

level

24%

Kozarmisleny FC scores more

25%

Kazincbarcikai at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Kazincbarcikai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

17'

49'

57'

57'

57'

E. Kocs-Washburn← B. Kiss

69'

Z. Debreceni← P. Horváth

70'

K. Kirchner

73'

K. Herjeczki← P. Ternován

78'

E. Kocs-Washburn

79'

P. Beke← R. Schuszter

79'

Z. Pesti← K. Kirchner

81'

B. Bacsa← K. Polgár

81'

B. Ferencsik← Á. Bódi

81'

87'

90+2'

90+6'

Kazincbarcikai

Kozarmisleny

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: G. Erős

57'▲B. Pethő←▼A. Pintér

73'▲K. Herjeczki←▼P. Ternován

81'▲B. Bacsa←▼K. Polgár

81'▲B. Ferencsik←▼Á. Bódi

81'▲I. Katona←▼B. Kártik

Kazincbarcikai substitutes

PethőHerjeczkiBacsaFerencsikKatonaSüttőSzujóDojcsákÁdámKirály

Manager: Z. Aczél

57'▲D. Cipf←▼K. Horváth

57'▲E. Kocs-Washburn←▼B. Kiss

69'▲Z. Debreceni←▼P. Horváth

79'▲P. Beke←▼R. Schuszter

79'▲Z. Pesti←▼K. Kirchner

Kozarmisleny FC substitutes

CipfKocs-WashburnDebreceniBekePestiBarkócziDomonkosLépőKoszovscsuk

NB II: Kazincbarcikai 2–3 Kozarmisleny FC

Kozarmisleny FC beat Kazincbarcikai 3-2 in NB II on September 29, 2024.

Goals: K. Kirchner (17', 70'), Lucas (49'), E. Kocs-Washburn (78'), I. Katona (87').

The match was played at Kolorcity Aréna in Kazincbarcika.

Kazincbarcikai vs Kozarmisleny FC — NB II 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

NB II: Kazincbarcikai 2–3 Kozarmisleny FC