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Kozara vs Dinamo Pančevo — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Kozara
Kozara
FT
2 – 3
Dinamo Pančevo
Dinamo Pančevo
8/29/2020Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 4Stadion FK Kozara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Kozara32%
×Draw24%
Dinamo Pančevo44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kozara
1.41
Dinamo Pančevo
1.68

Dinamo Pančevo creates 19% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 102 away

creates per match

Kozara
1.22
Dinamo Pančevo
1.13

allows per match

Kozara
2.22
Dinamo Pančevo
1.60

finishing

Kozara+0.00on par
Dinamo Pančevo+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kozara ↓

Dinamo Pančevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Kozara or draw
56%
Kozara or Dinamo Pančevo
76%
Draw or Dinamo Pančevo
68%

Winning margin

Kozara wins by 2+
15%
Dinamo Pančevo wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Kozara 1+ goals
76%
Kozara 2+ goals
41%
Kozara 3+ goals
17%
Dinamo Pančevo 1+ goals
81%
Dinamo Pančevo 2+ goals
50%
Dinamo Pančevo 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Kozara (draw refunded)
42%
Dinamo Pančevo (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kozara at home — creates 1.22, concedes 2.22 · 27 matches

Dinamo Pančevo away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.60 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kozara attack 1.22 + Dinamo Pančevo defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.41

Dinamo Pančevo attack 1.13 + Kozara defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kozara scores more
32%
level
24%
Dinamo Pančevo scores more
44%

Dinamo Pančevo at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Dinamo Pančevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Kozara 2–3 Dinamo Pančevo

Dinamo Pančevo beat Kozara 3-2 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on August 29, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion FK Kozara in Banatsko Veliko Selo.