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Dinamo Pančevo vs Kozara — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Dinamo Pančevo
Dinamo Pančevo
FT
1 – 2
Kozara
Kozara
3/20/2021Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 23Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Dinamo Pančevo63%
×Draw20%
Kozara16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Pančevo
2.10
Kozara
0.96

Dinamo Pančevo creates 119% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 28 away

creates per match

Dinamo Pančevo
1.71
Kozara
0.71

allows per match

Dinamo Pančevo
1.21
Kozara
2.50

finishing

Dinamo Pančevo+0.00on par
Kozara+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Pančevo ↓

Kozara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Dinamo Pančevo or draw
84%
Dinamo Pančevo or Kozara
80%
Draw or Kozara
37%

Winning margin

Dinamo Pančevo wins by 2+
40%
Kozara wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Dinamo Pančevo 1+ goals
88%
Dinamo Pančevo 2+ goals
62%
Dinamo Pančevo 3+ goals
35%
Kozara 1+ goals
62%
Kozara 2+ goals
25%
Kozara 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Pančevo (draw refunded)
79%
Kozara (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Pančevo at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.21 · 102 matches

Kozara away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.50 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Pančevo attack 1.71 + Kozara defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.10

Kozara attack 0.71 + Dinamo Pančevo defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Dinamo Pančevo scores more
63%
level
20%
Kozara scores more
16%

Dinamo Pančevo at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Dinamo Pančevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Dinamo Pančevo 1–2 Kozara

Kozara beat Dinamo Pančevo 2-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on March 20, 2021.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Pančevo.