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Kozara Gradiška vs BSK Banja Luka — 1st League - RS 2019

Kozara Gradiška
Kozara Gradiška
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
BSK Banja Luka
BSK Banja Luka
9/24/20251st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 8Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Kozara Gradiška47%
×Draw25%
BSK Banja Luka28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kozara Gradiška
1.56
BSK Banja Luka
1.16

Kozara Gradiška creates 34% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 48 away

creates per match

Kozara Gradiška
1.62
BSK Banja Luka
1.27

allows per match

Kozara Gradiška
1.05
BSK Banja Luka
1.50

finishing

Kozara Gradiška+0.00on par
BSK Banja Luka+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kozara Gradiška ↓

BSK Banja Luka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Kozara Gradiška or draw
72%
Kozara Gradiška or BSK Banja Luka
75%
Draw or BSK Banja Luka
53%

Winning margin

Kozara Gradiška wins by 2+
24%
BSK Banja Luka wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Kozara Gradiška 1+ goals
79%
Kozara Gradiška 2+ goals
46%
Kozara Gradiška 3+ goals
21%
BSK Banja Luka 1+ goals
69%
BSK Banja Luka 2+ goals
32%
BSK Banja Luka 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Kozara Gradiška (draw refunded)
62%
BSK Banja Luka (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kozara Gradiška at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.05 · 102 matches

BSK Banja Luka away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.50 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kozara Gradiška attack 1.62 + BSK Banja Luka defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.56

BSK Banja Luka attack 1.27 + Kozara Gradiška defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kozara Gradiška scores more
47%
level
25%
BSK Banja Luka scores more
28%

Kozara Gradiška at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Kozara Gradiška will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - RS: Kozara Gradiška 0–4 BSK Banja Luka

BSK Banja Luka beat Kozara Gradiška 4-0 in 1st League - RS on September 24, 2025.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Gradiška.