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BSK Banja Luka vs Kozara Gradiška — 1st League - RS 2019

BSK Banja Luka
BSK Banja Luka
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kozara Gradiška
Kozara Gradiška
3/21/20261st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 21Pomocni Teren Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

BSK Banja Luka63%
×Draw22%
Kozara Gradiška16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BSK Banja Luka
1.91
Kozara Gradiška
0.83

BSK Banja Luka creates 130% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 104 away

creates per match

BSK Banja Luka
2.14
Kozara Gradiška
0.84

allows per match

BSK Banja Luka
0.82
Kozara Gradiška
1.68

finishing

BSK Banja Luka+0.00on par
Kozara Gradiška+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BSK Banja Luka ↓

Kozara Gradiška →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

BSK Banja Luka or draw
84%
BSK Banja Luka or Kozara Gradiška
78%
Draw or Kozara Gradiška
37%

Winning margin

BSK Banja Luka wins by 2+
38%
Kozara Gradiška wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

BSK Banja Luka 1+ goals
85%
BSK Banja Luka 2+ goals
57%
BSK Banja Luka 3+ goals
30%
Kozara Gradiška 1+ goals
56%
Kozara Gradiška 2+ goals
20%
Kozara Gradiška 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

BSK Banja Luka (draw refunded)
80%
Kozara Gradiška (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BSK Banja Luka at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.82 · 49 matches

Kozara Gradiška away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.68 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BSK Banja Luka attack 2.14 + Kozara Gradiška defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.91

Kozara Gradiška attack 0.84 + BSK Banja Luka defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

BSK Banja Luka scores more
63%
level
22%
Kozara Gradiška scores more
16%

BSK Banja Luka at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "BSK Banja Luka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - RS: BSK Banja Luka 2–0 Kozara Gradiška

BSK Banja Luka beat Kozara Gradiška 2-0 in 1st League - RS on March 21, 2026.

The match was played at Pomocni Teren Gradski Stadion in Banja Luka.