Kozakken Boys 1–2 Koninklijke HFC: Result & Stats

Kozakken Boys

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Koninklijke HFC

8/26/2023

Tweede Divisie · Round 2Sportpark De Zwaaier

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Kozakken Boys39%

×Draw24%

Koninklijke HFC37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kozakken BoysExpected goals in this matchKoninklijke HFC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.52

Kozakken Boys

1.58

Koninklijke HFC

1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 84 home / 99 away

1.58

creates per match

1.34

1.70

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Kozakken Boys

1.58

Koninklijke HFC

1.34

allows per match

Kozakken Boys

1.70

Koninklijke HFC

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kozakken Boys+0.00on par

Koninklijke HFC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kozakken Boys ↓

Koninklijke HFC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Kozakken Boys or draw

63%

Kozakken Boys or Koninklijke HFC

76%

Draw or Koninklijke HFC

61%

Winning margin

Kozakken Boys wins by 2+

19%

Koninklijke HFC wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Kozakken Boys 1+ goals

79%

Kozakken Boys 2+ goals

47%

Kozakken Boys 3+ goals

21%

Koninklijke HFC 1+ goals

78%

Koninklijke HFC 2+ goals

45%

Koninklijke HFC 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Kozakken Boys (draw refunded)

52%

Koninklijke HFC (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kozakken Boys at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.70 · 84 matches

Koninklijke HFC away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.57 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kozakken Boys attack 1.58 + Koninklijke HFC defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.58

Koninklijke HFC attack 1.34 + Kozakken Boys defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kozakken Boys scores more

39%

level

24%

Koninklijke HFC scores more

37%

Kozakken Boys at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kozakken Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff