Koninklijke HFC 1–1 Kozakken Boys: Result & Stats

Koninklijke HFC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Kozakken Boys

1/20/2024

Tweede Divisie · Round 19Sportpark Spanjaardslaan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Koninklijke HFC48%

×Draw25%

Kozakken Boys27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Koninklijke HFCExpected goals in this matchKozakken Boys

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.09

Koninklijke HFC

1.56

Kozakken Boys

1.09

Koninklijke HFC creates 43% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 87 away

1.51

creates per match

1.17

1.02

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Koninklijke HFC

1.51

Kozakken Boys

1.17

allows per match

Koninklijke HFC

1.02

Kozakken Boys

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Koninklijke HFC+0.00on par

Kozakken Boys+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Koninklijke HFC ↓

Kozakken Boys →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Koninklijke HFC or draw

73%

Koninklijke HFC or Kozakken Boys

75%

Draw or Kozakken Boys

52%

Winning margin

Koninklijke HFC wins by 2+

25%

Kozakken Boys wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Koninklijke HFC 1+ goals

79%

Koninklijke HFC 2+ goals

46%

Koninklijke HFC 3+ goals

21%

Kozakken Boys 1+ goals

66%

Kozakken Boys 2+ goals

30%

Kozakken Boys 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Koninklijke HFC (draw refunded)

64%

Kozakken Boys (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Koninklijke HFC at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.02 · 98 matches

Kozakken Boys away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.62 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Koninklijke HFC attack 1.51 + Kozakken Boys defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.56

Kozakken Boys attack 1.17 + Koninklijke HFC defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Koninklijke HFC scores more

48%

level

25%

Kozakken Boys scores more

27%

Koninklijke HFC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Koninklijke HFC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff