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Kozakken Boys vs FC Lisse — Tweede Divisie 2019

Kozakken Boys
Kozakken Boys
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
FC Lisse
FC Lisse
2/18/2023Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 19Sportpark De Zwaaier

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Kozakken Boys49%
×Draw23%
FC Lisse28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kozakken Boys
1.88
FC Lisse
1.38

Kozakken Boys creates 36% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 35 away

creates per match

Kozakken Boys
1.58
FC Lisse
1.06

allows per match

Kozakken Boys
1.70
FC Lisse
2.17

finishing

Kozakken Boys+0.00on par
FC Lisse+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kozakken Boys ↓

FC Lisse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Kozakken Boys or draw
72%
Kozakken Boys or FC Lisse
77%
Draw or FC Lisse
51%

Winning margin

Kozakken Boys wins by 2+
27%
FC Lisse wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Kozakken Boys 1+ goals
85%
Kozakken Boys 2+ goals
56%
Kozakken Boys 3+ goals
29%
FC Lisse 1+ goals
75%
FC Lisse 2+ goals
40%
FC Lisse 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Kozakken Boys (draw refunded)
63%
FC Lisse (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kozakken Boys at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.70 · 84 matches

FC Lisse away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.17 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kozakken Boys attack 1.58 + FC Lisse defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.88

FC Lisse attack 1.06 + Kozakken Boys defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Kozakken Boys scores more
49%
level
23%
FC Lisse scores more
28%

Kozakken Boys at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Kozakken Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tweede Divisie: Kozakken Boys 1–2 FC Lisse

FC Lisse beat Kozakken Boys 2-1 in Tweede Divisie on February 18, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark De Zwaaier in Werkendam.