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FC Lisse vs Kozakken Boys — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

FC Lisse
FC Lisse
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kozakken Boys
Kozakken Boys
1/18/2025Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Group B - 19Sportpark Ter Specke

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

FC Lisse44%
×Draw26%
Kozakken Boys30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Lisse
1.48
Kozakken Boys
1.16

FC Lisse creates 28% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 17 away

creates per match

FC Lisse
1.91
Kozakken Boys
1.47

allows per match

FC Lisse
0.85
Kozakken Boys
1.06

finishing

FC Lisse+0.00on par
Kozakken Boys+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Lisse ↓

Kozakken Boys →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

FC Lisse or draw
70%
FC Lisse or Kozakken Boys
74%
Draw or Kozakken Boys
56%

Winning margin

FC Lisse wins by 2+
22%
Kozakken Boys wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FC Lisse 1+ goals
77%
FC Lisse 2+ goals
43%
FC Lisse 3+ goals
19%
Kozakken Boys 1+ goals
69%
Kozakken Boys 2+ goals
32%
Kozakken Boys 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

FC Lisse (draw refunded)
60%
Kozakken Boys (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Lisse at home — creates 1.91, concedes 0.85 · 34 matches

Kozakken Boys away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Lisse attack 1.91 + Kozakken Boys defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.48

Kozakken Boys attack 1.47 + FC Lisse defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FC Lisse scores more
44%
level
26%
Kozakken Boys scores more
30%

FC Lisse at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FC Lisse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Sunday: FC Lisse 1–0 Kozakken Boys

FC Lisse beat Kozakken Boys 1-0 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on January 18, 2025.

The match was played at Sportpark Ter Specke in Lisse.