Kozakken Boys 2–1 Excelsior Maassluis

Kozakken Boys

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Excelsior Maassluis

2/17/2024

Tweede Divisie · Round 22Sportpark De Zwaaier

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Kozakken Boys47%

×Draw23%

Excelsior Maassluis30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kozakken BoysExpected goals in this matchExcelsior Maassluis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.43

Kozakken Boys

1.83

Excelsior Maassluis

1.43

Kozakken Boys creates 28% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 104 away

1.58

creates per match

1.16

1.70

allows per match

2.09

creates per match

Kozakken Boys

1.58

Excelsior Maassluis

1.16

allows per match

Kozakken Boys

1.70

Excelsior Maassluis

2.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kozakken Boys+0.00on par

Excelsior Maassluis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kozakken Boys ↓

Excelsior Maassluis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Kozakken Boys or draw

70%

Kozakken Boys or Excelsior Maassluis

77%

Draw or Excelsior Maassluis

53%

Winning margin

Kozakken Boys wins by 2+

26%

Excelsior Maassluis wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Kozakken Boys 1+ goals

84%

Kozakken Boys 2+ goals

54%

Kozakken Boys 3+ goals

28%

Excelsior Maassluis 1+ goals

76%

Excelsior Maassluis 2+ goals

42%

Excelsior Maassluis 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Kozakken Boys (draw refunded)

61%

Excelsior Maassluis (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kozakken Boys at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.70 · 84 matches

Excelsior Maassluis away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.09 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kozakken Boys attack 1.58 + Excelsior Maassluis defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.83

Excelsior Maassluis attack 1.16 + Kozakken Boys defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kozakken Boys scores more

47%

level

23%

Excelsior Maassluis scores more

30%

Kozakken Boys at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Kozakken Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff