Excelsior Maassluis 0–0 Kozakken Boys

Excelsior Maassluis

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Kozakken Boys

9/16/2023

Tweede Divisie · Round 5Sportpark Dijkpolder

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Excelsior Maassluis44%

×Draw25%

Kozakken Boys31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Excelsior MaassluisExpected goals in this matchKozakken Boys

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.25

Excelsior Maassluis

1.54

Kozakken Boys

1.25

Excelsior Maassluis creates 23% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 87 away

1.46

creates per match

1.17

1.34

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Excelsior Maassluis

1.46

Kozakken Boys

1.17

allows per match

Excelsior Maassluis

1.34

Kozakken Boys

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Excelsior Maassluis+0.00on par

Kozakken Boys+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Excelsior Maassluis ↓

Kozakken Boys →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Excelsior Maassluis or draw

69%

Excelsior Maassluis or Kozakken Boys

75%

Draw or Kozakken Boys

56%

Winning margin

Excelsior Maassluis wins by 2+

22%

Kozakken Boys wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Excelsior Maassluis 1+ goals

79%

Excelsior Maassluis 2+ goals

45%

Excelsior Maassluis 3+ goals

20%

Kozakken Boys 1+ goals

71%

Kozakken Boys 2+ goals

36%

Kozakken Boys 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Excelsior Maassluis (draw refunded)

59%

Kozakken Boys (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Excelsior Maassluis at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.34 · 104 matches

Kozakken Boys away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.62 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Excelsior Maassluis attack 1.46 + Kozakken Boys defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.54

Kozakken Boys attack 1.17 + Excelsior Maassluis defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Excelsior Maassluis scores more

44%

level

25%

Kozakken Boys scores more

31%

Excelsior Maassluis at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Excelsior Maassluis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff