Kováčová 1–3 Dolný Kubín: Result & Stats

Kováčová

FT

1 – 3

Dolný Kubín

10/3/2021

3. liga - Center · Center - 10Štadión ŠK Prameň Kováčová

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Kováčová40%

×Draw23%

Dolný Kubín37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KováčováExpected goals in this matchDolný Kubín

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.66

Kováčová

1.74

Dolný Kubín

1.66

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 28 away

1.41

creates per match

1.96

1.36

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Kováčová

1.41

Dolný Kubín

1.96

allows per match

Kováčová

1.36

Dolný Kubín

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kováčová+0.00on par

Dolný Kubín+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kováčová ↓

Dolný Kubín →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Kováčová or draw

63%

Kováčová or Dolný Kubín

77%

Draw or Dolný Kubín

60%

Winning margin

Kováčová wins by 2+

21%

Dolný Kubín wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Kováčová 1+ goals

82%

Kováčová 2+ goals

52%

Kováčová 3+ goals

25%

Dolný Kubín 1+ goals

81%

Dolný Kubín 2+ goals

49%

Dolný Kubín 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Kováčová (draw refunded)

52%

Dolný Kubín (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kováčová at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.36 · 22 matches

Dolný Kubín away — creates 1.96, concedes 2.07 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kováčová attack 1.41 + Dolný Kubín defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.74

Dolný Kubín attack 1.96 + Kováčová defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kováčová scores more

40%

level

23%

Dolný Kubín scores more

37%

Kováčová at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kováčová will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff