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Dolný Kubín vs Kováčová — 3. liga - Center 2020

Dolný Kubín
Dolný Kubín
FT
4 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Kováčová
Kováčová
5/28/20223. liga - Center3. liga - Center · Center - 25Futbalove Ihrisko FC TJ Oravský Podzámok

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Dolný Kubín55%
×Draw22%
Kováčová23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dolný Kubín
1.96
Kováčová
1.21

Dolný Kubín creates 62% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 23 away

creates per match

Dolný Kubín
2.43
Kováčová
1.13

allows per match

Dolný Kubín
1.29
Kováčová
1.48

finishing

Dolný Kubín+0.00on par
Kováčová+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dolný Kubín ↓

Kováčová →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Dolný Kubín or draw
77%
Dolný Kubín or Kováčová
78%
Draw or Kováčová
45%

Winning margin

Dolný Kubín wins by 2+
32%
Kováčová wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Dolný Kubín 1+ goals
86%
Dolný Kubín 2+ goals
58%
Dolný Kubín 3+ goals
31%
Kováčová 1+ goals
70%
Kováčová 2+ goals
34%
Kováčová 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Dolný Kubín (draw refunded)
70%
Kováčová (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dolný Kubín at home — creates 2.43, concedes 1.29 · 28 matches

Kováčová away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.48 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dolný Kubín attack 2.43 + Kováčová defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.96

Kováčová attack 1.13 + Dolný Kubín defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Dolný Kubín scores more
55%
level
22%
Kováčová scores more
23%

Dolný Kubín at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Dolný Kubín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dolný Kubín vs Kováčová

Dolný Kubín beat Kováčová 4-1 in 3. liga - Center on May 28, 2022.

The match was played at Futbalove Ihrisko FC TJ Oravský Podzámok in Oravský Podzámok-Za vodou.