Kotwica Kołobrzeg 2–0 Hutnik Kraków: Result & Stats

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Hutnik Kraków

5/19/2024

II Liga - East · Round 33Stadion Miejski im. Sebastiana Karpiniuka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Kotwica Kołobrzeg52%

×Draw26%

Hutnik Kraków23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kotwica KołobrzegExpected goals in this matchHutnik Kraków

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.92

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

1.54

Hutnik Kraków

0.92

Kotwica Kołobrzeg creates 67% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 102 away

1.41

creates per match

1.04

0.79

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

1.41

Hutnik Kraków

1.04

allows per match

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

0.79

Hutnik Kraków

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kotwica Kołobrzeg+0.00on par

Hutnik Kraków+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kotwica Kołobrzeg ↓

Hutnik Kraków →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Kotwica Kołobrzeg or draw

77%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg or Hutnik Kraków

74%

Draw or Hutnik Kraków

48%

Winning margin

Kotwica Kołobrzeg wins by 2+

27%

Hutnik Kraków wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Kotwica Kołobrzeg 1+ goals

79%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg 2+ goals

45%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg 3+ goals

20%

Hutnik Kraków 1+ goals

60%

Hutnik Kraków 2+ goals

23%

Hutnik Kraków 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Kotwica Kołobrzeg (draw refunded)

70%

Hutnik Kraków (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kotwica Kołobrzeg at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.79 · 34 matches

Hutnik Kraków away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.67 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kotwica Kołobrzeg attack 1.41 + Hutnik Kraków defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.54

Hutnik Kraków attack 1.04 + Kotwica Kołobrzeg defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Kotwica Kołobrzeg scores more

52%

level

26%

Hutnik Kraków scores more

23%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Kotwica Kołobrzeg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff