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Hutnik Kraków vs Kotwica Kołobrzeg — II Liga - East 2019

Hutnik Kraków
Hutnik Kraków
FT
3 – 5
HT: 2 – 0
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
11/5/2023II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 16Stadion Suche Stawy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Hutnik Kraków38%
×Draw24%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hutnik Kraków
1.52
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 103 home / 34 away

creates per match

Hutnik Kraków
1.55
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
1.71

allows per match

Hutnik Kraków
1.32
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
1.50

finishing

Hutnik Kraków+0.00on par
Kotwica Kołobrzeg+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hutnik Kraków ↓

Kotwica Kołobrzeg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Hutnik Kraków or draw
62%
Hutnik Kraków or Kotwica Kołobrzeg
76%
Draw or Kotwica Kołobrzeg
62%

Winning margin

Hutnik Kraków wins by 2+
18%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Hutnik Kraków 1+ goals
78%
Hutnik Kraków 2+ goals
45%
Hutnik Kraków 3+ goals
20%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg 1+ goals
78%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg 2+ goals
45%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Hutnik Kraków (draw refunded)
50%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hutnik Kraków at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.32 · 103 matches

Kotwica Kołobrzeg away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.50 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hutnik Kraków attack 1.55 + Kotwica Kołobrzeg defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.52

Kotwica Kołobrzeg attack 1.71 + Hutnik Kraków defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Hutnik Kraków scores more
38%
level
24%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg scores more
38%

Hutnik Kraków at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Hutnik Kraków will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Hutnik Kraków 3–5 Kotwica Kołobrzeg

Kotwica Kołobrzeg beat Hutnik Kraków 5-3 in II Liga - East on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Suche Stawy in Kraków.