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Kotwica Kołobrzeg vs Gwardia Koszalin — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Kotwica Kołobrzeg
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
FT
1 – 1
Gwardia Koszalin
Gwardia Koszalin
9/26/2020III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 9Stadion Miejski im. Sebastiana Karpiniuka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Kotwica Kołobrzeg45%
×Draw25%
Gwardia Koszalin29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kotwica Kołobrzeg
1.54
Gwardia Koszalin
1.19

Kotwica Kołobrzeg creates 29% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 17 away

creates per match

Kotwica Kołobrzeg
1.79
Gwardia Koszalin
1.35

allows per match

Kotwica Kołobrzeg
1.03
Gwardia Koszalin
1.29

finishing

Kotwica Kołobrzeg+0.00on par
Gwardia Koszalin+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kotwica Kołobrzeg ↓

Gwardia Koszalin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Kotwica Kołobrzeg or draw
71%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg or Gwardia Koszalin
75%
Draw or Gwardia Koszalin
55%

Winning margin

Kotwica Kołobrzeg wins by 2+
23%
Gwardia Koszalin wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Kotwica Kołobrzeg 1+ goals
79%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg 2+ goals
45%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg 3+ goals
20%
Gwardia Koszalin 1+ goals
70%
Gwardia Koszalin 2+ goals
33%
Gwardia Koszalin 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Kotwica Kołobrzeg (draw refunded)
61%
Gwardia Koszalin (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kotwica Kołobrzeg at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.03 · 33 matches

Gwardia Koszalin away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kotwica Kołobrzeg attack 1.79 + Gwardia Koszalin defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.54

Gwardia Koszalin attack 1.35 + Kotwica Kołobrzeg defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kotwica Kołobrzeg scores more
45%
level
25%
Gwardia Koszalin scores more
29%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Kotwica Kołobrzeg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 2: Kotwica Kołobrzeg 1–1 Gwardia Koszalin

Kotwica Kołobrzeg and Gwardia Koszalin drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 2 on September 26, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Sebastiana Karpiniuka in Kołobrzeg.