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Gwardia Koszalin vs Kotwica Kołobrzeg — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Gwardia Koszalin
Gwardia Koszalin
FT
1 – 1
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
6/6/2021III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 32Stadion im. Stanisława Figasa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Gwardia Koszalin19%
×Draw22%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gwardia Koszalin
1.02
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
1.94

Kotwica Kołobrzeg creates 90% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

creates per match

Gwardia Koszalin
1.12
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
2.12

allows per match

Gwardia Koszalin
1.76
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
0.91

finishing

Gwardia Koszalin+0.00on par
Kotwica Kołobrzeg+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gwardia Koszalin ↓

Kotwica Kołobrzeg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Gwardia Koszalin or draw
41%
Gwardia Koszalin or Kotwica Kołobrzeg
78%
Draw or Kotwica Kołobrzeg
81%

Winning margin

Gwardia Koszalin wins by 2+
7%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Gwardia Koszalin 1+ goals
64%
Gwardia Koszalin 2+ goals
27%
Gwardia Koszalin 3+ goals
8%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg 1+ goals
86%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg 2+ goals
58%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Gwardia Koszalin (draw refunded)
25%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gwardia Koszalin at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

Kotwica Kołobrzeg away — creates 2.12, concedes 0.91 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gwardia Koszalin attack 1.12 + Kotwica Kołobrzeg defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.02

Kotwica Kołobrzeg attack 2.12 + Gwardia Koszalin defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Gwardia Koszalin scores more
19%
level
22%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg scores more
59%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Kotwica Kołobrzeg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 2: Gwardia Koszalin 1–1 Kotwica Kołobrzeg

Gwardia Koszalin and Kotwica Kołobrzeg drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 2 on June 6, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion im. Stanisława Figasa in Koszalin.