Kotwica Kołobrzeg 3–1 Górnik Konin: Result & Stats

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

FT

3 – 1

Górnik Konin

6/16/2021

III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 35Stadion Miejski im. Sebastiana Karpiniuka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Kotwica Kołobrzeg58%

×Draw23%

Górnik Konin19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kotwica KołobrzegExpected goals in this matchGórnik Konin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

0.93

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

1.81

Górnik Konin

0.93

Kotwica Kołobrzeg creates 95% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 17 away

1.79

creates per match

0.82

1.03

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

1.79

Górnik Konin

0.82

allows per match

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

1.03

Górnik Konin

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kotwica Kołobrzeg+0.00on par

Górnik Konin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kotwica Kołobrzeg ↓

Górnik Konin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Kotwica Kołobrzeg or draw

81%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg or Górnik Konin

77%

Draw or Górnik Konin

42%

Winning margin

Kotwica Kołobrzeg wins by 2+

33%

Górnik Konin wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Kotwica Kołobrzeg 1+ goals

84%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg 2+ goals

54%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg 3+ goals

27%

Górnik Konin 1+ goals

61%

Górnik Konin 2+ goals

24%

Górnik Konin 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Kotwica Kołobrzeg (draw refunded)

75%

Górnik Konin (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kotwica Kołobrzeg at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.03 · 33 matches

Górnik Konin away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kotwica Kołobrzeg attack 1.79 + Górnik Konin defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.81

Górnik Konin attack 0.82 + Kotwica Kołobrzeg defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Kotwica Kołobrzeg scores more

58%

level

23%

Górnik Konin scores more

19%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Kotwica Kołobrzeg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff