Górnik Konin 1–3 Kotwica Kołobrzeg: Result & Stats

Górnik Konin

FT

1 – 3

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

8/22/2020

III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 4Stadion Miejski im. Złotej Jedenastki Kazimierza Górskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Górnik Konin14%

×Draw18%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg68%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Górnik KoninExpected goals in this matchKotwica Kołobrzeg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.99

2.38

Górnik Konin

0.99

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

2.38

Kotwica Kołobrzeg creates 140% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

1.06

creates per match

2.12

2.65

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Górnik Konin

1.06

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

2.12

allows per match

Górnik Konin

2.65

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Górnik Konin+0.00on par

Kotwica Kołobrzeg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Konin ↓

Kotwica Kołobrzeg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–18%

0–210%

0–38%

0–45%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–210%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Górnik Konin or draw

32%

Górnik Konin or Kotwica Kołobrzeg

82%

Draw or Kotwica Kołobrzeg

86%

Winning margin

Górnik Konin wins by 2+

5%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg wins by 2+

45%

Team goals

Górnik Konin 1+ goals

63%

Górnik Konin 2+ goals

26%

Górnik Konin 3+ goals

8%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg 1+ goals

91%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg 2+ goals

68%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg 3+ goals

42%

Draw no bet

Górnik Konin (draw refunded)

17%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg (draw refunded)

83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Konin at home — creates 1.06, concedes 2.65 · 17 matches

Kotwica Kołobrzeg away — creates 2.12, concedes 0.91 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Konin attack 1.06 + Kotwica Kołobrzeg defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.99

Kotwica Kołobrzeg attack 2.12 + Górnik Konin defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Górnik Konin scores more

14%

level

18%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg scores more

68%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Kotwica Kołobrzeg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff