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Kotwica Kołobrzeg vs Chojniczanka Chojnice — II Liga - East 2019

Kotwica Kołobrzeg
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Chojniczanka Chojnice
Chojniczanka Chojnice
2/24/2024II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 21Stadion Miejski im. Sebastiana Karpiniuka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Kotwica Kołobrzeg41%
×Draw27%
Chojniczanka Chojnice32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kotwica Kołobrzeg
1.32
Chojniczanka Chojnice
1.12

Kotwica Kołobrzeg creates 18% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 87 away

creates per match

Kotwica Kołobrzeg
1.41
Chojniczanka Chojnice
1.45

allows per match

Kotwica Kołobrzeg
0.79
Chojniczanka Chojnice
1.23

finishing

Kotwica Kołobrzeg+0.00on par
Chojniczanka Chojnice+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kotwica Kołobrzeg ↓

Chojniczanka Chojnice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Kotwica Kołobrzeg or draw
68%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg or Chojniczanka Chojnice
73%
Draw or Chojniczanka Chojnice
59%

Winning margin

Kotwica Kołobrzeg wins by 2+
19%
Chojniczanka Chojnice wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Kotwica Kołobrzeg 1+ goals
73%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg 2+ goals
38%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg 3+ goals
15%
Chojniczanka Chojnice 1+ goals
67%
Chojniczanka Chojnice 2+ goals
31%
Chojniczanka Chojnice 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Kotwica Kołobrzeg (draw refunded)
57%
Chojniczanka Chojnice (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kotwica Kołobrzeg at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.79 · 34 matches

Chojniczanka Chojnice away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.23 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kotwica Kołobrzeg attack 1.41 + Chojniczanka Chojnice defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.32

Chojniczanka Chojnice attack 1.45 + Kotwica Kołobrzeg defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Kotwica Kołobrzeg scores more
41%
level
27%
Chojniczanka Chojnice scores more
32%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kotwica Kołobrzeg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Kotwica Kołobrzeg 3–0 Chojniczanka Chojnice

Kotwica Kołobrzeg beat Chojniczanka Chojnice 3-0 in II Liga - East on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Sebastiana Karpiniuka in Kołobrzeg.