Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Chojniczanka Chojnice vs Kotwica Kołobrzeg — II Liga - East 2019

Chojniczanka Chojnice
Chojniczanka Chojnice
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
8/12/2023II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 4Stadion Miejski Chojnice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Chojniczanka Chojnice46%
×Draw24%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chojniczanka Chojnice
1.71
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
1.35

Chojniczanka Chojnice creates 27% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 34 away

creates per match

Chojniczanka Chojnice
1.91
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
1.71

allows per match

Chojniczanka Chojnice
0.99
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
1.50

finishing

Chojniczanka Chojnice+0.00on par
Kotwica Kołobrzeg+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chojniczanka Chojnice ↓

Kotwica Kołobrzeg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Chojniczanka Chojnice or draw
70%
Chojniczanka Chojnice or Kotwica Kołobrzeg
76%
Draw or Kotwica Kołobrzeg
54%

Winning margin

Chojniczanka Chojnice wins by 2+
24%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Chojniczanka Chojnice 1+ goals
82%
Chojniczanka Chojnice 2+ goals
51%
Chojniczanka Chojnice 3+ goals
24%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg 1+ goals
74%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg 2+ goals
39%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Chojniczanka Chojnice (draw refunded)
60%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chojniczanka Chojnice at home — creates 1.91, concedes 0.99 · 87 matches

Kotwica Kołobrzeg away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.50 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chojniczanka Chojnice attack 1.91 + Kotwica Kołobrzeg defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.71

Kotwica Kołobrzeg attack 1.71 + Chojniczanka Chojnice defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Chojniczanka Chojnice scores more
46%
level
24%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg scores more
30%

Chojniczanka Chojnice at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Chojniczanka Chojnice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Chojniczanka Chojnice 1–1 Kotwica Kołobrzeg

Chojniczanka Chojnice and Kotwica Kołobrzeg drew 1-1 in II Liga - East on August 12, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski Chojnice in Chojnice.